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Correlation
of values
+87%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
391
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~76% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+87%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
391 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
413
8,185
Normalized
413
8,185
Prepared
413
393
Aligned
391
391
Invalid removed
76%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
391
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+87%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
391 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+87%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+87%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-55%
77 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
24
A: 22 / B: 2
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 413 raw → 413 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,185 raw → 393 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.5588
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-rsafs_monthly_5y