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Correlation
of values
-72%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
391
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~51% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-72%
Based on values
95% CI
-76% → -67%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
391 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
533
8,153
Normalized
533
8,153
Prepared
533
391
Aligned
391
391
Invalid removed
R²(i)
51.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
391
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-72%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
391 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-72%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-72%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+15%
74 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
110 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
142
A: 142 / B: 0
Series A
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,153 raw → 391 prepared
Sign agreement
93.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-3.1394
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
18.1817
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y