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Correlation
of values
+81%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
393
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~66% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USD/MXN Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before PPI: All Commodities
Watch USD/MXN Exchange Rate for an early read on PPI: All Commodities.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+81%
Based on values
95% CI
+77% → +84%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
393 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,363
8,230
Normalized
1,363
8,230
Prepared
1,363
395
Aligned
393
393
Invalid removed
R²(i)
66%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
393
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+86%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/MXN Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does PPI: All Commodities today line up with USD/MXN Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
375 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+81%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+8%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
65 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
972
A: 970 / B: 2
Series A
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,363 raw → 1,363 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,230 raw → 395 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0855
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-2.0730
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-ppiaco_monthly_5y