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Correlation
of values
+88%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
390
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~78% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+88%
Based on values
95% CI
+86% → +90%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
390 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,048
8,153
Normalized
1,048
8,153
Prepared
1,048
391
Aligned
390
390
Invalid removed
R²(i)
78.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
390
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+88%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
390 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+88%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
99 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+41%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
130 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
659
A: 658 / B: 1
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,048 raw → 1,048 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,153 raw → 391 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0004
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-36.7188
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-payems_monthly_5y