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Correlation
of values
-67%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-36
1,713
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~45% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-67%
Based on values
95% CI
-70% → -64%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,713 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,893
8,230
Normalized
2,893
8,230
Prepared
2,893
1,713
Aligned
1,713
1,713
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
45%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,713
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-67%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,713 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-67%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-67%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,180
A: 1180 / B: 0
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,893 raw → 2,893 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,230 raw → 1,713 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.9905
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
24.6606
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-mortgage30us_weekly_5y