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Correlation
of values
+69%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
389
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~48% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
USD/MXN Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before M1 Money Supply
Watch USD/MXN Exchange Rate for an early read on M1 Money Supply.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+69%
Based on values
95% CI
+64% → +74%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
389 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
8,153
Normalized
807
8,153
Prepared
807
391
Aligned
389
389
Invalid removed
R²(i)
47.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
389
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+76%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/MXN Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does M1 Money Supply today line up with USD/MXN Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
371 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+69%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+76%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+60%
77 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+37%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-16%
132 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
420
A: 418 / B: 2
Series A
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,153 raw → 391 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0005
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.7959
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-m1sl_monthly_5y