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Correlation
of values
+88%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
128
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~78% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+88%
Based on values
95% CI
+84% → +91%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
128 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
240
8,153
Normalized
240
8,153
Prepared
240
391
Aligned
128
128
Invalid removed
R²(i)
77.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
128
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+88%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
128 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+88%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+81%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+41%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
55 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
375
A: 112 / B: 263
Series A
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
GFDEGDQ188S
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,153 raw → 391 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1715
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.3100
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-gfdegdq188s_monthly_5y