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Correlation
of values
+89%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
128
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~78% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
USD/MXN Exchange Rate moves ~17 months before Federal Debt
Watch USD/MXN Exchange Rate for an early read on Federal Debt.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+89%
Based on values
95% CI
+84% → +92%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
128 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
240
8,153
Normalized
240
8,153
Prepared
240
391
Aligned
128
128
Invalid removed
R²(i)
78.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
128
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-17 months
Correlation at this shift
+95%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/MXN Exchange Rate shifted 17 months later. Reads: "Does Federal Debt today line up with USD/MXN Exchange Rate 17 months ago?"
111 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+89%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-17 months
+95%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+71%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-41%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
61 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
375
A: 112 / B: 263
Series A
Federal Debt
GFDEBTN
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,153 raw → 391 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6.8094
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-gfdebtn_monthly_5y