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Correlation
of values
-44%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
390
These move opposite each other about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Fed Funds Rate moves ~18 months before USD/MXN Exchange Rate
Watch Fed Funds Rate for an early read on USD/MXN Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-44%
Based on values
95% CI
-52% → -36%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
390 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
862
8,153
Normalized
862
8,153
Prepared
862
391
Aligned
390
390
Invalid removed
R²(i)
19.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
390
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-49%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/MXN Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with USD/MXN Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
372 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+5%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-3%
48 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-51%
148 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
473
A: 472 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,153 raw → 391 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.9426
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
15.7512
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y