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Correlation
of values
-66%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-28
8,190
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~44% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-66%
Based on values
95% CI
-67% → -65%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
8,190 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
16,151
8,225
Normalized
16,151
8,225
Prepared
16,151
8,225
Aligned
8,190
8,190
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
44%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
8,190
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-66%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
8,190 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-66%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
7,996
A: 7961 / B: 35
Series A
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,151 raw → 16,151 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,225 raw → 8,225 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
31
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.6819
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
19.0573
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexmxus_fred-dgs5_daily_5y