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Correlation
of values
-70%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
533
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~49% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-70%
Based on values
95% CI
-74% → -65%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
533 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
533
13,877
Normalized
533
13,877
Prepared
533
666
Aligned
533
533
Invalid removed
R²(i)
48.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
533
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-70%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
533 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-70%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-70%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+49%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-22%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
133
A: 0 / B: 133
Series A
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Series B
USD/MYR Exchange Rate
DEXMAUS
FRED · 13,877 raw → 666 prepared
Sign agreement
95.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2731
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.0234
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-dexmaus_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y