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Correlation
of values
-51%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
monthsmonths · through 2024-01
54
These move opposite each other about 38% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~26% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Inflation, consumer prices moves ~6 months before USD/MYR Exchange Rate
Watch Inflation, consumer prices for an early read on USD/MYR Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-51%
Based on values
95% CI
-68% → -28%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
54 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
65
13,863
Normalized
65
13,863
Prepared
65
665
Aligned
54
54
Invalid removed
R²(i)
25.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
54
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+6 months
Correlation at this shift
-67%
+17% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/MYR Exchange Rate shifted 6 months earlier. Reads: "Does Inflation, consumer prices today line up with USD/MYR Exchange Rate 6 months from now?"
48 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-51%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 months
-67%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+8%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-35%
35 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
622
A: 11 / B: 611
Series A
Inflation, consumer prices
FPCPITOTLZGUSA
FRED · 65 raw → 65 prepared
Series B
USD/MYR Exchange Rate
DEXMAUS
FRED · 13,863 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
98.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1292
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.6823
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexmaus_fred-fpcpitotlzgusa_monthly_5y