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Correlation
of values
-33%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
540
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-33%
Based on values
95% CI
-40% → -25%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
540 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
939
11,271
Normalized
939
11,271
Prepared
939
542
Aligned
540
540
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
540
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-33%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
540 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+25%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
401
A: 399 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 939 raw → 939 prepared
Series B
USD/KRW Exchange Rate
DEXKOUS
FRED · 11,271 raw → 542 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-39.8306
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1268.9394
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexkous_fred-unrate_monthly_5y