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Correlation
of values
-20%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
540
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-20%
Based on values
95% CI
-28% → -11%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
540 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
671
11,271
Normalized
671
11,271
Prepared
671
542
Aligned
540
540
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
540
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-20%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
540 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-20%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-33%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-32%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
133
A: 131 / B: 2
Series A
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Series B
USD/KRW Exchange Rate
DEXKOUS
FRED · 11,271 raw → 542 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-3.2025
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1302.9508
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexkous_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y