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Correlation
of values
-35%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
603
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-35%
Based on values
95% CI
-42% → -28%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
603 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
603
13,879
Normalized
603
13,879
Prepared
603
665
Aligned
603
603
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
603
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-35%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
603 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+52%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
62
A: 0 / B: 62
Series A
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 603 raw → 603 prepared
Series B
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,879 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-8.5165
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
271.4226
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexjpus_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y