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Correlation
of values
-20%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-20
1,690
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-20%
Based on values
95% CI
-24% → -15%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,690 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,690
13,879
Normalized
1,690
13,879
Prepared
1,690
2,887
Aligned
1,690
1,690
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
3.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,690
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-20%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,690 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-20%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,197
A: 0 / B: 1197
Series A
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,690 raw → 1,690 prepared
Series B
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,879 raw → 2,887 prepared
Sign agreement
35.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
47
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-3.5381
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
112.7827
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexjpus_fred-stlfsi4_weekly_5y