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Correlation
of values
+85%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-04
2,483
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~72% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+85%
Based on values
95% CI
+84% → +86%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,483 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
2,512
13,956
Normalized
2,512
13,956
Prepared
2,512
13,956
Aligned
2,483
2,483
Invalid removed
R²(i)
72%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
2,483
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+85%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,483 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+85%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+85%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+36%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+13%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-81%
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
11,502
A: 29 / B: 11473
Series A
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 2,512 prepared
Series B
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,956 raw → 13,956 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
39
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0114
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
79.4278
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexjpus_fred-sp500_daily_5y