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Correlation
of values
+43%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
412
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~18% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Retail Sales moves ~16 months before USD/JPY Exchange Rate
Watch Retail Sales for an early read on USD/JPY Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+43%
Based on values
95% CI
+35% → +50%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
412 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
412
13,879
Normalized
412
13,879
Prepared
412
665
Aligned
412
412
Invalid removed
R²(i)
18.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
412
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+16 months
Correlation at this shift
+50%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/JPY Exchange Rate shifted 16 months earlier. Reads: "Does Retail Sales today line up with USD/JPY Exchange Rate 16 months from now?"
396 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+16 months
+50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-4%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-26%
56 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
253
A: 0 / B: 253
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 412 raw → 412 prepared
Series B
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,879 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
94.7619
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexjpus_fred-rsafs_monthly_5y