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Correlation
of values
-22%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
663
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USD/JPY Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before M1 Money Supply
Watch USD/JPY Exchange Rate for an early read on M1 Money Supply.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-22%
Based on values
95% CI
-29% → -14%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
663 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
13,879
Normalized
807
13,879
Prepared
807
665
Aligned
663
663
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
663
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-27%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/JPY Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does M1 Money Supply today line up with USD/JPY Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
645 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-27%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-35%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-25%
27 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
146
A: 144 / B: 2
Series A
M1 Money Supply
M1SL
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,879 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0027
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
165.0376
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexjpus_fred-m1sl_monthly_5y