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Correlation
of values
+54%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
304
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~29% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Job Openings moves ~18 months before USD/JPY Exchange Rate
Watch Job Openings for an early read on USD/JPY Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+54%
Based on values
95% CI
+46% → +62%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
304 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
304
13,879
Normalized
304
13,879
Prepared
304
665
Aligned
304
304
Invalid removed
R²(i)
29.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
304
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+76%
+22% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/JPY Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Job Openings today line up with USD/JPY Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
286 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+54%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+76%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
38 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
100 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
361
A: 0 / B: 361
Series A
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 304 raw → 304 prepared
Series B
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,879 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0045
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
88.4266
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexjpus_fred-jtsjol_monthly_5y