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Correlation
of values
+58%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
666
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Funds Rate moves ~15 months before USD/JPY Exchange Rate
Watch Fed Funds Rate for an early read on USD/JPY Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+58%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
666 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
864
13,911
Normalized
864
13,911
Prepared
864
667
Aligned
666
666
Invalid removed
34%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
666
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+15 months
Correlation at this shift
+64%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/JPY Exchange Rate shifted 15 months earlier. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with USD/JPY Exchange Rate 15 months from now?"
651 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+15 months
+64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+8%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
199
A: 198 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Series B
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,911 raw → 667 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
10.5047
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
105.5439
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexjpus_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y