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Correlation
of values
+58%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
664
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Funds Rate moves ~15 months before USD/JPY Exchange Rate
Watch Fed Funds Rate for an early read on USD/JPY Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+58%
Based on values
95% CI
+53% → +63%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
664 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
862
13,879
Normalized
862
13,879
Prepared
862
665
Aligned
664
664
Invalid removed
R²(i)
34.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
664
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+15 months
Correlation at this shift
+64%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/JPY Exchange Rate shifted 15 months earlier. Reads: "Does Fed Funds Rate today line up with USD/JPY Exchange Rate 15 months from now?"
649 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+15 months
+64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-20%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
199
A: 198 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Series B
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,879 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
10.5086
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
105.4774
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexjpus_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y