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Correlation
of values
+43%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-02
5,867
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~19% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+43%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,867 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,880
13,911
Normalized
5,880
13,911
Prepared
5,880
13,911
Aligned
5,867
5,867
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
19%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
5,867
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+43%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,867 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
8,057
A: 13 / B: 8044
Series A
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,880 raw → 5,880 prepared
Series B
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,911 raw → 13,911 prepared
Sign agreement
83.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
74
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
8.5416
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
104.0942
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexjpus_fred-dfii10_daily_5y