Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-39%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
11,627
These move opposite each other about 58% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~15% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-39%
Based on values
95% CI
-41% → -38%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
11,627 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
13,879
11,628
Normalized
13,879
11,628
Prepared
13,879
11,628
Aligned
11,627
11,627
Invalid removed
R²(i)
15.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
11,627
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-39%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
11,627 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
99 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-29%
76 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
74 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,253
A: 2252 / B: 1
Series A
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,879 raw → 13,879 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 11,628 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
70
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0475
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
13.9081
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexjpus_fred-dexsfus_daily_5y