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Correlation
of values
+27%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
8,153
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+27%
Based on values
95% CI
+25% → +29%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
8,153 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
13,879
8,153
Normalized
13,879
8,153
Prepared
13,879
8,153
Aligned
8,153
8,153
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
8,153
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+27%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
8,153 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+27%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+4%
72 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-8%
83 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-61%
94 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,726
A: 5726 / B: 0
Series A
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,879 raw → 13,879 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,153 raw → 8,153 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
118
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0723
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.1357
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexjpus_fred-dexmxus_daily_5y