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Correlation
of values
-23%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
640
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Housing Starts moves ~18 months before USD/INR Exchange Rate
Watch Housing Starts for an early read on USD/INR Exchange Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-23%
Based on values
95% CI
-30% → -16%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
640 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
13,377
Normalized
808
13,377
Prepared
808
641
Aligned
640
640
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
640
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-28%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/INR Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Housing Starts today line up with USD/INR Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
622 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-23%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-28%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-53%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-11%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
29 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
169
A: 168 / B: 1
Series A
Housing Starts
HOUST
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
USD/INR Exchange Rate
DEXINUS
FRED · 13,377 raw → 641 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
54
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0149
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
59.5137
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexinus_fred-houst_monthly_5y