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Correlation
of values
-37%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
545
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USD/HKD Exchange Rate moves ~11 months before Unemployment Rate
Watch USD/HKD Exchange Rate for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
545 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
941
11,417
Normalized
941
11,417
Prepared
941
547
Aligned
545
545
Invalid removed
13%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
545
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-11 months
Correlation at this shift
-45%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/HKD Exchange Rate shifted 11 months later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with USD/HKD Exchange Rate 11 months ago?"
526 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-11 months
-45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+30%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+80%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
36 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
398
A: 396 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,417 raw → 547 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0851
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.1920
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-unrate_monthly_5y