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Correlation
of values
-8%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-18
1,688
These move opposite each other about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~1% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-8%
Based on values
95% CI
-13% → -3%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,688 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,688
11,375
Normalized
1,688
11,375
Prepared
1,688
2,366
Aligned
1,688
1,688
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,688
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-8%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,688 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-8%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-8%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
76 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
67 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
106 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
678
A: 0 / B: 678
Series A
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,688 raw → 1,688 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,375 raw → 2,366 prepared
Sign agreement
35.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
120
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0026
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.7781
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-stlfsi4_weekly_5y