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Correlation
of values
-42%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
532
These move opposite each other about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-42%
Based on values
95% CI
-48% → -34%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
532 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
532
11,375
Normalized
532
11,375
Prepared
532
545
Aligned
532
532
Invalid removed
R²(i)
17.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
532
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-42%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
532 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+31%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+4%
76 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
103 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
13
A: 0 / B: 13
Series A
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 532 raw → 532 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,375 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
95.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0648
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.8856
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y