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Correlation
of values
-60%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-18
2,366
These move opposite each other about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~36% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-60%
Based on values
95% CI
-63% → -58%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,366 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,876
11,375
Normalized
2,876
11,375
Prepared
2,876
2,366
Aligned
2,366
2,366
Invalid removed
R²(i)
36.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,366
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-60%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,366 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+26%
72 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+23%
77 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
100 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
510
A: 510 / B: 0
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,876 raw → 2,876 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,375 raw → 2,366 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0775
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.2497
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-mortgage30us_weekly_5y