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Correlation
of values
+47%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2024-01
44
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~22% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
USD/HKD Exchange Rate moves ~13 months before Real Median Personal Income in the United States
Watch USD/HKD Exchange Rate for an early read on Real Median Personal Income in the United States.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
62.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+47%
Based on values
95% CI
+20% → +67%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
44 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
51
11,375
Normalized
51
11,375
Prepared
51
545
Aligned
44
44
Invalid removed
R²(i)
22.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
44
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-13 months
Correlation at this shift
+55%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/HKD Exchange Rate shifted 13 months later. Reads: "Does Real Median Personal Income in the United States today line up with USD/HKD Exchange Rate 13 months ago?"
31 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-13 months
+55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+61%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-40%
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
508
A: 7 / B: 501
Series A
Real Median Personal Income in the United States
MEPAINUSA672N
FRED · 51 raw → 51 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,375 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.9067
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-mepainusa672n_monthly_5y