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Correlation
of values
+48%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
308
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~23% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Job Openings moves ~9 months before USD/HKD Exchange Rate
Watch Job Openings for an early read on USD/HKD Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+48%
Based on values
95% CI
+39% → +56%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
308 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
308
11,466
Normalized
308
11,466
Prepared
308
549
Aligned
308
308
Invalid removed
R²(i)
23%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
308
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+9 months
Correlation at this shift
+55%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/HKD Exchange Rate shifted 9 months earlier. Reads: "Does Job Openings today line up with USD/HKD Exchange Rate 9 months from now?"
299 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+48%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+9 months
+55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+21%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
87 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
241
A: 0 / B: 241
Series A
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 308 raw → 308 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,466 raw → 549 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.7516
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-jtsjol_monthly_5y