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Correlation
of values
-59%
In sync
of periods
67%
History
monthsmonths · through 2024-01
44
These move opposite each other about 67% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~35% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
67.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-59%
Based on values
95% CI
-75% → -35%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
44 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
65
11,375
Normalized
65
11,375
Prepared
65
545
Aligned
44
44
Invalid removed
R²(i)
34.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
44
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-59%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
44 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-59%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+5%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
522
A: 21 / B: 501
Series A
Inflation, consumer prices
FPCPITOTLZGUSA
FRED · 65 raw → 65 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,375 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
97.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1626
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.1495
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-fpcpitotlzgusa_monthly_5y