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Correlation
of values
-61%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
544
These move opposite each other about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~37% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-61%
Based on values
95% CI
-66% → -55%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
544 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
862
11,375
Normalized
862
11,375
Prepared
862
545
Aligned
544
544
Invalid removed
R²(i)
36.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
544
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-61%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
544 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-61%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+25%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+50%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
123 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
319
A: 318 / B: 1
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,375 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0699
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.9770
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y