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Correlation
of values
+23%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-01
5,825
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+23%
Based on values
95% CI
+20% → +25%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,825 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,841
11,375
Normalized
5,841
11,375
Prepared
5,841
11,375
Aligned
5,825
5,825
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
5,825
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+23%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,825 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+23%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+23%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+19%
62 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+10%
66 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
121 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,566
A: 16 / B: 5550
Series A
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,841 raw → 5,841 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,375 raw → 11,375 prepared
Sign agreement
83.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
38
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0072
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.7781
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-dfii10_daily_5y