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Correlation
of values
-37%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-01
11,371
These move opposite each other about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on values
95% CI
-38% → -35%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
11,371 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
13,859
11,375
Normalized
13,859
11,375
Prepared
13,859
11,375
Aligned
11,371
11,371
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
11,371
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-37%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
11,371 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-9%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+5%
66 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-14%
112 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,492
A: 2488 / B: 4
Series A
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,859 raw → 13,859 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,375 raw → 11,375 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
127
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.4831
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.6347
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_fred-dexusnz_daily_5y