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Correlation
of values
+76%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
233
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~58% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
USD/DKK Exchange Rate moves ~15 months before Real Personal Consumption
Watch USD/DKK Exchange Rate for an early read on Real Personal Consumption.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+76%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
233 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
233
13,916
Normalized
233
13,916
Prepared
233
667
Aligned
233
233
Invalid removed
58%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
233
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
+82%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/DKK Exchange Rate shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does Real Personal Consumption today line up with USD/DKK Exchange Rate 15 months ago?"
218 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+76%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
+82%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
94 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-1%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-25%
109 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
434
A: 0 / B: 434
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 233 raw → 233 prepared
Series B
USD/DKK Exchange Rate
DEXDNUS
FRED · 13,916 raw → 667 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.5009
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexdnus_fred-pcec96_monthly_5y