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Correlation
of values
-38%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
387
These move opposite each other about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
U-6 Unemployment Rate moves ~18 months before USD/CNY Exchange Rate
Watch U-6 Unemployment Rate for an early read on USD/CNY Exchange Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-38%
Based on values
95% CI
-46% → -29%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
387 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
387
11,325
Normalized
387
11,325
Prepared
387
545
Aligned
387
387
Invalid removed
R²(i)
14.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
387
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-50%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CNY Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does U-6 Unemployment Rate today line up with USD/CNY Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
369 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+25%
81 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
134 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
158
A: 0 / B: 158
Series A
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 387 raw → 387 prepared
Series B
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1059
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.4241
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexchus_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y