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Correlation
of values
-38%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
389
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
U-6 Unemployment Rate moves ~18 months before USD/CNY Exchange Rate
Watch U-6 Unemployment Rate for an early read on USD/CNY Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-38%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
389 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
389
11,357
Normalized
389
11,357
Prepared
389
547
Aligned
389
389
Invalid removed
14%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
389
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-51%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CNY Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does U-6 Unemployment Rate today line up with USD/CNY Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
363 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+12%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-37%
82 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
158
A: 0 / B: 158
Series A
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 389 raw → 389 prepared
Series B
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,357 raw → 547 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1050
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.4108
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexchus_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y