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Correlation
of values
+55%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
543
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~30% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+55%
Based on values
95% CI
+49% → +60%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
543 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
11,325
Normalized
807
11,325
Prepared
807
545
Aligned
543
543
Invalid removed
R²(i)
29.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
543
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+55%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
543 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+55%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-2%
100 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+3%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
134 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
266
A: 264 / B: 2
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0481
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.4248
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexchus_fred-pcepi_monthly_5y