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Correlation
of values
+28%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
231
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Real Personal Consumption moves ~18 months before USD/CNY Exchange Rate
Watch Real Personal Consumption for an early read on USD/CNY Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+28%
Based on values
95% CI
+16% → +40%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
231 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
231
11,325
Normalized
231
11,325
Prepared
231
545
Aligned
231
231
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
231
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+66%
+37% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CNY Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Real Personal Consumption today line up with USD/CNY Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
213 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
68 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-26%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-27%
131 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
314
A: 0 / B: 314
Series A
Real Personal Consumption
PCEC96
FRED · 231 raw → 231 prepared
Series B
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.8948
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexchus_fred-pcec96_monthly_5y