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Correlation
of values
+51%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-20
1,812
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~26% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+51%
Based on values
95% CI
+48% → +55%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,812 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,813
11,325
Normalized
1,813
11,325
Prepared
1,813
2,368
Aligned
1,812
1,812
Invalid removed
R²(i)
26.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,812
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+51%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,812 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+51%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+37%
53 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+12%
92 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-10%
104 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
557
A: 1 / B: 556
Series A
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,813 raw → 1,813 prepared
Series B
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 2,368 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
22
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2659
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.8454
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexchus_fred-mortgage15us_weekly_5y