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Correlation
of values
+62%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2024-01
44
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~39% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Real Median Personal Income in the United States moves ~13 months before USD/CNY Exchange Rate
Watch Real Median Personal Income in the United States for an early read on USD/CNY Exchange Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+62%
Based on values
95% CI
+40% → +78%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
44 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
51
11,325
Normalized
51
11,325
Prepared
51
545
Aligned
44
44
Invalid removed
R²(i)
39.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
44
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+13 months
Correlation at this shift
-91%
+29% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CNY Exchange Rate shifted 13 months earlier. Reads: "Does Real Median Personal Income in the United States today line up with USD/CNY Exchange Rate 13 months from now?"
31 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+62%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+13 months
-91%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+75%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
508
A: 7 / B: 501
Series A
Real Median Personal Income in the United States
MEPAINUSA672N
FRED · 51 raw → 51 prepared
Series B
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-3.0246
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexchus_fred-mepainusa672n_monthly_5y