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Correlation
of values
+16%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
181
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~3% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Velocity of M2 Money Stock moves ~18 months before USD/CNY Exchange Rate
Watch Velocity of M2 Money Stock for an early read on USD/CNY Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+16%
Based on values
95% CI
+2% → +30%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
181 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
269
11,325
Normalized
269
11,325
Prepared
269
545
Aligned
181
181
Invalid removed
R²(i)
2.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
181
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+27%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CNY Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Velocity of M2 Money Stock today line up with USD/CNY Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
163 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+16%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+27%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-5%
48 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-31%
93 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
452
A: 88 / B: 364
Series A
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Series B
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.1644
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.2286
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexchus_fred-m2v_monthly_5y