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Correlation
of values
+32%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
180
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+32%
Based on values
95% CI
+18% → +44%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
180 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
240
11,325
Normalized
240
11,325
Prepared
240
545
Aligned
180
180
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
180
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+32%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
180 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
74 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+11%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-34%
96 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
425
A: 60 / B: 365
Series A
Federal Debt
GFDEBTN
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Series B
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.5582
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexchus_fred-gfdebtn_monthly_5y