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Correlation
of values
+54%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
182
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~29% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
USD/CNY Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Potential GDP
Watch USD/CNY Exchange Rate for an early read on Potential GDP.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+54%
Based on values
95% CI
+42% → +63%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
182 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
352
11,325
Normalized
352
11,325
Prepared
352
545
Aligned
182
182
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
28.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
182
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+59%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CNY Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Potential GDP today line up with USD/CNY Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
164 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+54%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+59%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-2%
83 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-17%
98 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
533
A: 170 / B: 363
Series A
Potential GDP
GDPPOT
FRED · 352 raw → 352 prepared
Series B
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0002
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.9568
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexchus_fred-gdppot_monthly_5y