Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-49%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
monthsmonths · through 2024-01
44
These move opposite each other about 39% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~24% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Inflation, consumer prices moves ~13 months before USD/CNY Exchange Rate
Watch Inflation, consumer prices for an early read on USD/CNY Exchange Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-49%
Based on values
95% CI
-69% → -22%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
44 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
65
11,325
Normalized
65
11,325
Prepared
65
545
Aligned
44
44
Invalid removed
R²(i)
23.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
44
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+13 months
Correlation at this shift
+59%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CNY Exchange Rate shifted 13 months earlier. Reads: "Does Inflation, consumer prices today line up with USD/CNY Exchange Rate 13 months from now?"
31 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+13 months
+59%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+56%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-32%
27 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
522
A: 21 / B: 501
Series A
Inflation, consumer prices
FPCPITOTLZGUSA
FRED · 65 raw → 65 prepared
Series B
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
97.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5427
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.9184
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexchus_fred-fpcpitotlzgusa_monthly_5y