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Correlation
of values
+17%
In sync
of periods
65%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
5,080
These move in the same direction about 65% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~3% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+17%
Based on values
95% CI
+14% → +20%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,080 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,325
5,107
Normalized
11,325
5,107
Prepared
11,325
5,107
Aligned
5,080
5,080
Invalid removed
R²(i)
2.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
5,080
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+17%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,080 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+17%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+17%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+24%
88 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+28%
108 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
53 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
6,272
A: 6245 / B: 27
Series A
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 11,325 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXEMEGS
FRED · 5,107 raw → 5,107 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
5.2318
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
76.4366
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexchus_fred-dtwexemegs_daily_5y