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Correlation
of values
-67%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
11,271
These move opposite each other about 51% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~44% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-67%
Based on values
95% CI
-68% → -66%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
11,271 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
16,081
11,325
Normalized
16,081
11,325
Prepared
16,081
11,325
Aligned
11,271
11,271
Invalid removed
R²(i)
44.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
11,271
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-67%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
11,271 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-67%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-67%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-12%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+5%
72 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-26%
116 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,864
A: 4810 / B: 54
Series A
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,081 raw → 16,081 prepared
Series B
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 11,325 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3874
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.2511
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexchus_fred-dgs5_daily_5y