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Correlation
of values
-70%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
11,271
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~48% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-70%
Based on values
95% CI
-71% → -69%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
11,271 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,311
11,325
Normalized
12,311
11,325
Prepared
12,311
11,325
Aligned
11,271
11,271
Invalid removed
R²(i)
48.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
11,271
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-70%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
11,271 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-70%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-70%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
59 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-7%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-27%
125 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,094
A: 1040 / B: 54
Series A
30Y Treasury Yield
DGS30
FRED · 12,311 raw → 12,311 prepared
Series B
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 11,325 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4690
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.0582
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexchus_fred-dgs30_daily_5y