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Correlation
of values
-16%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
11,320
These move opposite each other about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-16%
Based on values
95% CI
-18% → -14%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
11,320 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,325
13,869
Normalized
11,325
13,869
Prepared
11,325
13,869
Aligned
11,320
11,320
Invalid removed
R²(i)
2.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
11,320
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-16%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
11,320 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-16%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-16%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-21%
47 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-9%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
146 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,554
A: 5 / B: 2549
Series A
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 11,325 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,869 raw → 13,869 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0085
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.6964
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexchus_fred-dexusnz_daily_5y