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Correlation
of values
-20%
In sync
of periods
58%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
10,345
These move opposite each other about 58% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-20%
Based on values
95% CI
-22% → -18%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
10,345 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
11,325
10,398
Normalized
11,325
10,398
Prepared
11,325
10,398
Aligned
10,345
10,345
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
10,345
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-20%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
10,345 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-20%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+5%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+23%
74 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-7%
119 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,033
A: 980 / B: 53
Series A
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 11,325 prepared
Series B
USD/TWD Exchange Rate
DEXTAUS
FRED · 10,398 raw → 10,398 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
100
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4053
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
33.7613
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexchus_fred-dextaus_daily_5y